When to turn your heating on in 2026, and what waiting saves

What the forecasts say about this winter

On 11 September the Met Office said temperatures were expected to be slightly above average into early October. It added that El Niño years have tended to bring warmer, wetter and stormier conditions to the UK in late autumn and early winter. Its long-range forecast, as reported on 5 October, pointed to above-average temperatures through late October and early November.

Recent years back that up. In 2023, 2024 and 2025, October to December needed 12 to 14% less heating than the 30-year average, according to the government's heating degree day figures. If this year is similar, that's about £29 less on a typical home's heating over those three months, before you change a thing.

The catch: the Met Office also says El Niño years can bring a colder end to winter, and that El Niño is only one of several factors. A mild start doesn't mean a mild January or February.

What waiting saves

Savings compared with having the heating on from 1 October to 31 May, at the October to December 2026 price cap rate of 7.97p per kWh:

Starting later and switching off earlier add together. Spring figures use today's price; the January price cap hasn't been announced yet.

Work out your own saving

When not to wait

UKHSA advises heating the rooms you spend a lot of time in, such as the living room and bedroom, to at least 18°C. Check with a thermometer rather than guessing. UKHSA lists people aged 65 and over, young children (especially under 5), pregnant women and people with long-term health conditions among those most at risk from the cold. If that's your household, don't hold off to save money.

Before you switch on for the first time

1. Put the heating on and feel the top of each radiator. Baxi says to check them at least once a year, when you switch your heating on again after the summer. Baxi, Worcester Bosch
2. Bleed any that are cold at the top: heating off, radiators cooled, then open the bleed valve with a radiator key until water appears. Baxi, Worcester Bosch
3. Check the boiler pressure afterwards, because bleeding lets some out. Worcester Bosch says to top it up if it has dropped. Our pressure checker shows your brand's range. Worcester Bosch, Vaillant, Baxi
4. If radiators are still cold after bleeding, Vaillant says the system may need flushing by a heating engineer. Vaillant

Doing this now, on a mild day, means you find any problem before the first cold night. If the boiler won't fire, look up the code on its display or see no heating: the checks to do.

How we worked it out

• Gas use: Ofgem's typical domestic consumption values, which from 1 July 2026 are 6,000, 9,500 and 14,000 kWh of gas a year.
• How much is heating: a 2024 study of daily GB gas demand found space heating is about 88% of a gas boiler's yearly use, with hot water the rest. We applied 88%.
• When it's used: we spread that heating across the year in line with the government's heating degree days (DESNZ Energy Trends table 7.1, 30-year average 1991 to 2020, published 29 September 2026). Heating degree days measure how far, and for how long, the outdoor temperature falls below 15.5°C.
• Price: Ofgem's price cap gas unit rate for 1 October to 31 December 2026, 7.97p per kWh by direct debit (GB average). The 29.68p daily standing charge is paid either way, so it isn't part of any saving.
• Limits: these are averages for a home that heats whenever the weather calls for it. Your saving depends on your home, how warm you keep it and the weather this year.